Achieving a Sustainable Global Energy System: Identifying Possibilities Using Long-term Energy ScenariosLeo Schrattenholzer, Asami Miketa, Keywan Riahi,, Richard Alexander Roehrl Sustainable development and global climate change have figured prominently in scientific analysis and international policymaking since the early 1990s. This book formulates technology strategies that will lead to environmentally sustainable energy systems |
Contents
1 Sustainable development and climate change | 1 |
11 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT | 2 |
12 SCENARIOS | 4 |
13 SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS | 5 |
14 AUDIENCE AND OBJECTIVES | 6 |
15 STRUCTURE OF THIS BOOK | 7 |
2 Methodology | 9 |
22 BUILDING LONGTERM E3 SCENARIOS | 10 |
43 FURTHER EXAMPLES OF TECHNOLOGY CLUSTERS | 87 |
44 IDENTIFYING MARKET SUCCESS MS CLUSTERS | 97 |
45 A COMPREHENSIVE EXAMPLE OF CLUSTERS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIPS | 106 |
5 A sustainabledevelopment scenario in detail | 109 |
51 NUMERICAL ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE TWO SCENARIOS | 110 |
52 MODEL RESULTS | 126 |
53 ESTIMATION OF RD EXPENDITURES PLUS POLICY IMPLICATIONS | 156 |
6 Summary and policy implications | 160 |
3 Energyeconomyenvironment scenarios at IIASAECS | 20 |
32 EXPLORING THE RANGES | 21 |
33 IIASAS LONGTERM E3 SCENARIOS | 24 |
34 RESULTS OF ALL THREE SCENARIO SETS | 35 |
35 ANALYSIS OF MITIGATION SCENARIOS | 51 |
36 ANALYSIS OF SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS | 54 |
4 Technology clusters | 82 |
42 TECHNOLOGY KINSHIP | 85 |
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Common terms and phrases
21st century activity variables analysis annual arios assumed assumptions biomass carbon emissions carbon intensity cent Climate Change climate sensitivity CO₂ CO2 emissions coal constraints consumption costs defined economic growth elasticity class Emissions Scenarios energy carrier energy conversion technologies energy demand energy form energy intensity energy supply energy system energy technologies environmental example Figure final-energy fossil fuels fuel cells GDP per capita global energy growth rates high-impact scenarios identifier IIASA scenarios IIASA-WEC important increase input parameters intergenerational equity IPCC load regions long-term market shares median MESSAGE model Methanol mitigation scenarios Nakićenović natural gas nologies nuclear OECD period PF strategy population power plants ppmv primary primary-energy projections public acceptance range reduction resource extraction scen SD scenarios sector solar subject to optimization sustainable development sustainable-development scenarios synthetic fuel tech technological progress technology clusters TP clusters tricity variables subject Yes Yes Yes