Causation, Chance and Credence: Proceedings of the Irvine Conference on Probability and Causation, Volume 1B. Skyrms, W.L. Harper The papers collected here are, with three exceptions, those presented at a conference on probability and causation held at the University of California at Irvine on July 15-19, 1985. The exceptions are that David Freedman and Abner Shimony were not able to contribute the papers that they presented to this volume, and that Clark Glymour who was not able to attend the conference did contribute a paper. We would like to thank the National Science Foundation and the School of Humanities of the University of California at Irvine for generous support. WILLIAM HARPER University of Western Ontario BRIAN SKYRMS University of California at Irvine VII INTRODUCTION TO CAUSATION, CHANCE, AND CREDENCE The search for causes is so central to science that it has sometimes been taken as the defining attribute of the scientific enterprise. Yet even after twenty-five centuries of philosophical analysis the meaning of "cause" is still a matter of controversy, among scientists as well as philosophers. Part of the problem is that the servicable concepts of causation built out of Necessity, Sufficiency, Locality, and Temporal Precedence were constructed for a deterministic world-view which has been obsolete since the advent of quantum theory. A physically credible theory of causation must be, at basis, statistical. And statistical analyses of caus ation may be of interest even when an underlying deterministic theory is assumed, as in classical statistical mechanics. |
Contents
Causality Testing in a Decision Science | 3 |
A Review | 23 |
Good and NotSoGood | 51 |
Response to Salmon | 73 |
Regular Associations and Singular Causes | 79 |
Reply to Nancy Cartwright | 99 |
Reply to Ellery Eells | 105 |
Probabilistic Causal Levels | 109 |
Probabilistic Causality in Space and Time | 135 |
PHYSICAL PROBABILITY DEGREE OF BELIEF AND De FINETTIS THEOREM | 153 |
Symmetry and Its Discontents | 155 |
A Theory of Higher Order Probabilities | 191 |
Conditioning Kinematics and Exchangeability | 221 |
Ergodic Theory and the Foundations of Probability | 257 |
279 | |
Other editions - View all
Causation, Chance and Credence: Proceedings of the Irvine ..., Volume 1 B. Skyrms,W.L. Harper No preview available - 2012 |
Causation, Chance and Credence: Proceedings of the Irvine ..., Volume 1 B. Skyrms,W.L. Harper No preview available - 2011 |
Common terms and phrases
actually analysis argument assignment assume assumption average Axiom background context ball Bayes's birdie Brian Skyrms Cartwright causal chain causal factors causal significance causal tendency cell chance classical conditional probability consider constants of motion correlation countable decision rule defined definition degree of belief Diaconis discussion effect epistemic equal equipossible equivalent ergodic theory event example expert probability Finetti's finite formula Freedman frequencies frequentist function G₂ given Good's independent induction intuitions kick Logic Markov mathematical measure observed occur outcome partial exchangeability partition Philosophy of Science physical pills population positive possible postulate pr(A principle prob probabilistic causality probability distribution probability kinematics problem psychotherapy quantum mechanics question random variables relevant Salmon sample space sequence Simpson's paradox squirrel statistical statistical mechanics strength subsets sufficient Suppes symmetry theorem thrombosis tion token cause tosses trajectory University values weight of evidence