Further Evidence that Legalized Abortion Lowered Crime: A Reply to JoyceDonohue and Levitt (2001) present a number of analyses that suggest a causal link between legalized abortion and reductions in crime almost two decades later when the cohorts exposed to legalized abortion reach their peak crime years. Joyce (2003) challenges that finding. In this paper, we demonstrate that Joyce's failure to uncover a negative relationship between abortion and crime is a direct consequence of his decision to focus exclusively on the six-year period 1985-90 without including adequate controls for the crack epidemic. We provide empirical evidence that crack hit the high-abortion early legalizing states harder and earlier. We then demonstrate that using precisely the same treatment and control groups as Joyce, but extending the data analysis to encompass the lifetime criminal experiences (as opposed to an arbitrary six-year window), the evidence strongly supports the hypothesis that legalized abortion reduces crime. We also show that our original results are robust to focusing on only the cohorts born immediately before or after Roe v. Wade. The data suggest that ease of access to abortion, rather than simply de jure legalization, is a critical determinant of the extent of the crime reduction. |
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1,000 live births abortion becomes legal abortion exposure abortion in 1970 abortion legalization abortion on crime abortion proxy abortions per 1,000 Alan Guttmacher Institute analysis arrest data became legal Birth Cohorts born after legalization coefficient cohort effects cohorts born column control for crack crack epidemic crime categories differences-in-differences estimate Donohue and Levitt drop in crime drug-related homicides early legalizing Economic effective abortion rate egal estimate of exposure evidence exposed exposure to legalized findings Foreign Direct Investment Homicide Report data homicides committed identification strategy identified illegal abortion impact of abortion impact of legalized inside the back instructions inside James Heckman Joyce's claim Joyce's Table legalization on crime legalizations in 1970 link between abortion Michael W national time-series NBER nomics Number of Homicides original hypothesis papers in hard percent rates of abortion reductions in crime regressions results in Joyce's six-year period state-age interactions subscription Supplemental Homicide Report variable variation violent crime Vuitch Wade