Indonesia: Selected IssuesThis Selected Issues paper on Indonesia explains through econometric analysis the contribution of different factors to export growth and assesses the prospects for its maintenance in the future. The paper reviews developments in Indonesian export growth since 1970. It develops a model of export demand and export supply, provides empirical estimates from the model, and the implications of the results. The paper also addresses medium-term prospects for export growth on the basis of the estimated model and the possible impact of exchange rate changes. |
Contents
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND | 4 |
Charts | 18 |
Implications for Monetary Policy of Large Capital Flows | 30 |
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agricultural areas ASEAN ASEAN countries Asian balanced budget rule Bank Indonesia banking sector budgetary capital flows capital-labor ratio central bank central government Chart coefficient cointegration consumer price consumer price index current account December decline deficit domestic prices effective exchange rate emerging market countries exchange rate appreciation expenditure export growth export performance external fiscal policy forecast foreign direct investment Fund staff estimates Granger Causality IMF Working Paper impact income increase Indonesian authorities industrial countries inflation targeting inflows interest rates International Financial Statistics lending levels limited macroeconomic manufactured exports medium-term monetary policy money growth nominal exchange rate output overall percent of GDP period policy response poverty private capital flows problem loans prudential Real effective exchange real exchange rate reduced reforms relative prices Report revenue risks share of manufactured sustained Table tariffs total exports trade distortions trade liberalization U.S. dollar World Bank World Economic Outlook