Nonextrapolative Methods in Business Forecasting: Scenarios, Vision, and Issues ManagementJay Mendell explores the profound implications and consequences of the forecaster's new and changing role in an economy based on high-technology entrepreneurship. This incisive text explains the principles of nonextrapolative forecasting/planning and compares them with conventional forecasting/planning methods. Case studies of nonextrapolative forecasting and planning in Sears, AT&T, a large hotel chain, an electric power company, and the Security Pacific Bank are provided. They deal with the practical problems of setting up forecasting/planning groups and maintaining their existence and influence through internal planning processes. The political process of acceptance and implementation of forecasting/planning is also explained. Comprehensive planning and forecasting documents are included as appendix material. |
Contents
Alternative Futures | 21 |
Exhibits | 22 |
Scenarios and Scenario Writing | 47 |
Copyright | |
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activity alternative futures Alvin Toffler American analysis areas Arthur Harkins artificial intelligence assessment assumptions automatic teller machines automation baby baby boom banks become believe committee continue corporate create cross-impact cross-impact analysis decision define demonstration scenario driving force scenario economy effective electronic energy environment environmental scanning example executive experimenting external factors families federal financial services forecasting growth Herman Kahn households human identify imagination impact important income increase industry information technology institutions issues management John Naisbitt less machines major manufacturing mental scenarios million monitoring organization PATTERN NUMBER percent population possible potential probability problem result robots scenario writing Sears Security Pacific Bank social society SRI International staff step strategic planning strategic vision supercomputers system change scenario technique thinking top management trends ultimate invention understand United users workers workforce