The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain WorldWhat increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life—bottom-line numbers, for instance—but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories—scenarios—and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles. In The Art of the Long View, now with the addition of an all-new User's Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business. Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the world's leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange. |
Contents
3 | |
The ScenarioBuilding Animal | 29 |
Uncovering the Decision | 44 |
InformationHunting and Gathering | 60 |
261 | |
270 | |
Other editions - View all
The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World Peter Schwartz Limited preview - 1998 |
The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World Peter Schwartz No preview available - 1996 |
The Art of the Long View: Paths to Strategic Insight for Yourself and Your ... Peter Schwartz No preview available - 1996 |
Common terms and phrases
ahead American Arie de Geus asked baby boom bloc challenge and response companies COMPOSING A PLOT consider corporate countries critical uncertainties culture demographic develop driving forces economic effect electronic energy environment environmental example factors feel fringes Global Business Network global teenager growth ideas imagine important industry INFORMATION-HUNTING AND GATHERING Japan Japanese learning logic Lone Ranger LONG VIEW look magazine managers means ment Michael Ventura mind-set myths narios nations ness Official Future oil prices OPEC organization Paul Hawken Pierre Wack planning political population possible predetermined elements problems questions REHEARSING THE FUTURE Royal Dutch/Shell scenario process SCENARIO-BUILDING Shell Smith & Hawken social Soviet Union Stewart Brand story strategic conversation THREE SCENARIOS tion Troll gas field Troll platform United winners and losers York