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2030 in Percent aggregate Armington elasticities assumption benchmark scenario calibrated capita income capital accumulation capital stock change in relative China climate change climate policies CO2-emissions CO2-intensity coal comparative advantage computable general equilibrium CPP AGR TRN CRU COL GAS crude oil DART model developing countries domestic Economic effective labor EGW OIL ISM elasticity of substitution energy equilibrium model exogenous export factors of production Figure A23 fossil fuel fossil fuel supply function GAS EGW OIL growth processes growth rate GTAP data set Hall and Jones human capital import shares increase industrialized countries investment ISM CPP AGR Kiel Kstr Kyoto Protocol LDCs multi-regional OECD OIL ISM CPP Oktober output pessimistic growth scenario Production Structure rate of return refined oil products relative factor endowments Relative Factor Prices savings rate scenario Sensitivity Analysis Supply Elasticity Trade Model welfare effects world economy