## Assessment and evaluation of subjective probability distributionsEconomic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics; Norstedt (distr.), 1970 - Bayesian statistical decision theory - 229 pages |

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### Contents

Introduction and Summary | 1 |

Goodness of Probability Assessments | 25 |

External Validity of Assessments | 48 |

Copyright | |

13 other sections not shown

### Common terms and phrases

applications assessed distributions assessment task assessment techniques assessor assigned assumed average scores average temperature Bayes Bernoulli process beta distribution better Briteglo chapter choice consensus group conservatism decision analysis decision maker decision problems decision situations decision tree defined devices difficult discussed Economic equal estimates evaluation example expected score expected value experiment experimental feedback Finetti fractiles given Holstein hypothetical sample judgment logarithmic rule logarithmic scoring rule long-run frequencies Markov chain maximize median ment meteorologists Murphy outcomes parameters participants persons practical presented prior distribution probabilistic probability assessments procedure proper scoring rule quadratic rule quadratic scoring rule quartiles Raiffa rain ranked probability score relevant represents Research risk Section sensitive to distance sessions SMHI Statistical stock market Stockholm 1967 strictly proper scoring subjective probability distributions Table test sale tion true event uncertain quantities uncertainty University of Stockholm utility function variables Weights proportional Winkler