Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit From Turning Points in the EconomyHow can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed? The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE shows you how. In BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy. Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks. BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels–managers, small business owners, and individuals–can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day? Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE reveals which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times–even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd. |
Contents
PART | 65 |
Leading Indicators | 101 |
69 | 108 |
What Do I Do? RealLife Scenarios | 159 |
The Discipline of a Cyclical Approach | 175 |
Crystal BallsUp | 188 |
Index | 194 |
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Common terms and phrases
2001 recession ahead approach attribution bias bear market began bonds boom bull market business cycle recessions business cycle research chart Coincident Index composite indexes cube Cycle Research Institute cyclical turn cyclical worldview decisions decline develop downswings downturn durable sequence econ economic activity economic cycle economic dashboard economic growth economic turning points economists economy's ECRI ECRI's expansion fall Fed Funds Rate forecasting free market Future Inflation Gauge Geoffrey Moore global Greenspan growth and inflation growth cycle growth rate cycle hedge fund industry interest rates inventory investment jobless jobless recovery Leading Employment Index Leading Home Price leading indicators Long Leading Index manufacturing many-cycles Mitchell monitor months Moore NBER nomic percent plunge predict turning points reces recessions and recoveries rising risk Shaded areas represent shift Short Leading sion slowdown stock market stock prices tion U.S. business cycle upswing upturn Weekly Leading Index WLI growth
Popular passages
Page 196 - ... it is important to understand something of the mechanism that drives a business cycle. A recession occurs when a decline - however initiated or instigated - occurs in some measure of aggregate economic activity and causes cascading declines in the other key measures of activity. Thus, when a dip in sales causes a drop in production, triggering declines in employment and income, which in turn feed back into a further fall in sales, a vicious cycle results and a recession ensues. This domino effect...
Page 196 - After all, in order to determine a business cycle chronology, it is important to understand something of the mechanism that drives a business cycle. A recession occurs when a decline - however initiated or instigated - occurs in some measure of aggregate economic activity and causes cascading declines in the other key measures of activity. Thus, when a dip in sales causes a drop in production, triggering declines in employment and income, which in turn feed back into a further fall in sales, a vicious...