The rise and fall of infrastructures: dynamics of evolution and technological change in transport
The book gives a quantitative and long-term (200 years) history of the evolution of individual transport infrastructures and a synthesis of the resulting structural changes in the transport sector. The analysis covers a number of countries (USA, Europe and the USSR). Comparability at the international level and of the development of individual transport systems (canals, railways, roads and automobiles, air transport) is achieved by applying a consistent, quantitative analysis framework derived from diffusion theory. The approach is new in its integrative and holistic picture and unique in the quantitative data base assembled. Benefits to readers in academia include an overview of diffusion research and methodology, and of the quantitative history of transport infrastructures. For readers from applied transport policy and planning, the stable patterns identified in the individual life cycles of infrastructures and of the structural changes in the transport system give new insights about future trends and their resulting consequences on transport and energy planning.
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An Integrative View on LongTerm
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adoption air transport aircraft analysis analyzed appears automobile average behavior cluster comparative advantage competition consider countries curve decline density diffusion curve diffusion models diffusion pattern diffusion process diffusion rate discontinuities discussed driving forces dynamics economic empirical estimated evolution evolutionary expansion Figure firms France function growth pulse horse important increasing individual industry inflection point innovation centers innovation diffusion interaction large number logistic function logistic growth long-term Lotka-Volterra equation market niches market share micro level modal split Nakicenovic parameter particular passenger cars passenger transport passenger-km performance period port present productivity railway network relative replacement result road transport S-shaped saturation level saturation phase Section similar sion social statistics substitution model substitution process surfaced roads t-km technological change tion traffic trajectory trans transport in France transport infrastructures transport modes transport sector transport speeds transport system travel time budget uncertainty USSR value market variables
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