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Combining Seasonality and Smoothing
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accuracy actual data point actual value addfactor addition alpha analyst approach autocorrelation Box-Jenkins calculated causal modeling Chapter CM CM CM coefficient column COMCTS COMENG cross-sectional regression D-W statistic data series data set degrees of freedom determine developed discussion econometric employment equation's error terms examine example Exercise explanatory variables exponential smoothing F-statistic Figure fore forecast error Forecasting Methods historical data housing starts identify impact important INCOME independent variables indicates individual influence interest rates judgmental linear major MANEMP measures model solution monthly movements moving average multicollinearity nomic number of observations partial autocorrelations percent change period polynomial population procedures projection provides qualitative quantitative quarter regression analysis regression equation relationship remove represents residuals rH rH seasonal factors seasonal pattern seasonally adjusted serial correlation significant simple specific step Table techniques tests tion trend utilized variance variation weight X TAXES