Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles

Front Cover
Harvard Business Press, 2005 - Business & Economics - 276 pages
7 Reviews
Todayís managers and investors are bombarded with so many conflicting economic reports and data that it seems impossible to know which way the market will turn until itís too late.

Now, a thirty-five year Wall Street veteran enables managers and investors to stop relying on conventional economic forecasts (which are usually wrong), and confidently analyse how the market will impact their industry, business, or stocks. The author unveils his proven forecasting modelóbased on just a few key economic indicatorsófor identifying major directional changes in the economy and adjusting business and investing strategies accordingly.

  • A simpler and more pragmatic approach to forecasting: user-friendly approach draws from empirical observation and first-hand practice rather than abstract economic theories
  • Great timing: will appeal to the many business people and investors who got burned in the dotcom bust because they didnít see the downturn coming
  • Proven model developed by a bonafide Wall Street sage: Ellis is widely respected as a sage when it comes to analysing economic trends based on over three decades as a successful Wall Street analyst
  • Novel, counterintuitive, accessible: goes against the grain of common wisdom about what really drives the economy and makes practical tools available to a wide audience of practitioners for the first time
  • Appendix B in the book specifically relates the methodology in the main section of the book to possible application in the UK, Canada, Germany, France, and Japan
  

What people are saying - Write a review

User ratings

5 stars
2
4 stars
2
3 stars
2
2 stars
1
1 star
0

Review: Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business And Market Cycle

User Review  - Paul Tennant - Goodreads

an absolutely fabulous and easy read. it goes in to why consumer spending is 2/3 of gdp. and the cycles of the retail industry. youll love this read, and learn a thing or two along the way. Read full review

Review: Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business And Market Cycle

User Review  - Aubrey - Goodreads

This book is pretty dense, I would only recommend it to those who are serious about studying the economy and markets. Read full review

Contents

Seeing Around Economic Corners
3
Making Sense of the Economy
11
Redefining Economic Downturns
25
An Antidote for the Recession Obsession
33
Smart Economic Tracking
49
The Nature of Leading Indicators
61
The Cornerstone of the Economy and the Stock Market
71
Consumer Spending Corporate Profits
91
Employment and Unemployment
137
Interest Rates Inflation and the Economic Cycle
153
Interest Rates and the Stock Market
163
The Link Between Federal Deficits and Interest Rates
171
From Theory to Practice
179
Making Economics Happen
203
Notes
257
Bibliography
265

Forecasting Consumer Spending
105
Real Earnings
117
About the Author
275
Copyright

Common terms and phrases

About the author (2005)

Joseph H. Elliswas a partner of Goldman Sachs and was ranked for eighteen consecutive years by Institutional Investor magazine as Wall Streetís #1 retail-industry analyst.

Bibliographic information