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13 cycles 15 mo past 99-percent level ascent durations 50 consensus prediction contingency tables cycle 23 cycle 23's RM cycle onset cycles 1-22 left cycles 10-22 right cycles i.e. duration 48 mo Elkridge Estimates for RM fast risers Figure Fisher's exact test i i i i i i i i i i i I I ignoring cycle 19 inferred linear regressions inferred regressions larger than average later occurring maximum level of confidence Linthicum Heights Marshall Space Flight maximum amplitude RM maximum-minimum effect mean cycle mean sunspot number mo past minimum modern era cycles modern era sunspot monthly mean sunspot NASA STI Program observed to predicted Past Sunspot Minimum predicted RM ratio of observed RM versus R(t Scatter plots scientific and technical significant 95 percent slow risers smaller than average smoothed monthly mean solar activity solar cycle Space Flight Center standard error statistically important sunspot cycle numbers value of smoothed