HIV/AIDS: the impact on poverty and inequality, Issues 2006-2126
International Monetary Fund, African Dept., 2006 - Health & Fitness - 22 pages
Using available data on the distribution of HIV/AIDS prevalence across population groups for four sub-Saharan African countries and transposing this information to household income and expenditure surveys, we simulate the impact of HIV/AIDS on poverty and inequality. We find that the epidemic lowers average income and increases poverty, and that the jump in poverty is larger than expected from the fall in average income. This disproportionate increase in poverty reflects the large share of the population living on the threshold of poverty and the higher HIV prevalence rates in those segments of the population.
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16.6 Poverty headcount age group AIDS Change analysis average income base case scenario Baseline scenario Demographic and health dependency Ratio 2.44 epidemic estimates Expenditure household surveys Expenditure PPP U.S. fall in income formal sector Ghana and Kenya Ghana Kenya Swaziland Gini coefficient 53.85 headcount poverty higher HIV prevalence rates HIV/AIDS on households HIV/AIDS on poverty household income household member human capital impact of HIV/AIDS impact on income impact on poverty income and poverty income decile Income dependency ratio income per capita income/expenditure surveys listed increased mortality increases in headcount individuals infected Kenya Swaziland Zambia l-a-day poverty labor market assumptions listed in Table morbidity costs population groups poverty and inequality Poverty gap $2/day poverty gap increase Poverty headcount 34.15 Poverty headcount 66.38 Poverty headcount l/day poverty indicators poverty line PPP U.S. dollars sample countries simulations social insurance mechanisms social support sub-Saharan Africa unemployed vacated jobs worker replacement World Bank YearO Year Change