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adaptive expectations affect unemployment aggregate demand variables Arguments and Evidence Arthur Okun assumed assumption Bank of Minneapolis behavior Business Cycle call for rejection correlations between aggregate deterministic econometric Economic Activity economic theory equation estimate Federal Reserve Bank feedback rule forecast errors George Perry hypothesis of rational imply inflation process invariance argument involuntary unemployment Lucas Lucas's model macroeconomic model Macroeconomic Phenomena monetary authority monetary policy money supply natural rate hypothesis natural rate-rational expectations natural unemployment rate Neil Wallace Neutrality of Money neutrality theorem nominal aggregate demand nominal contracting noninvariance arguments observed Okun and George optimal output and employment Papers on Economic Phillips curve policy regimes policy rule predictable prescription price level priori random rate-rational expectations hypothesis rational expectations test real GNP real variables regression reject the natural restriction Robert Solow sample period serial correlation Solow and Tobin Studies in Monetary Theory of Economic Thomas Sargent tion uncorrelated unemployment rate hypothesis variance wage