Nonextrapolative methods in business forecasting: scenarios, vision, and issues management
Jay Mendell explores the profound implications and consequences of the forecaster's new and changing role in an economy based on high-technology entrepreneurship. This incisive text explains the principles of nonextrapolative forecasting/planning and compares them with conventional forecasting/planning methods. Case studies of nonextrapolative forecasting and planning in Sears, AT&T, a large hotel chain, an electric power company, and the Security Pacific Bank are provided. They deal with the practical problems of setting up forecasting/planning groups and maintaining their existence and influence through internal planning processes. The political process of acceptance and implementation of forecasting/planning is also explained. Comprehensive planning and forecasting documents are included as appendix material.
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Scenarios and Scenario Writing
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