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Effects of Migration on Potential Output in the FRG
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1/2 percent 1OOZ adaptive expectations aggregate demand Alexander and Gagnon appreciation against non-ERM assumed balance Bundesbank capacity utilization capital accumulation capital stock central parities Chart current account depend deutsche mark Effective Exchange Rate effects of GEMSU equation ERM countries ERM currencies estimates European monetary policy European money exchange rate expectations expected to depreciate exports Federal Republic GDP Deflator GDR economy German Unification Germany global government deficits government spending imports increased demand Indirect Tax Increase industrial countries inflation pressures initial interest differential interest parity interest rates increase less optimistic scenario Long-Term Interest Rate lower macroeconomic marginal product migration MULTIMOD simulations non-linear offset point diffaranca policy credibility potential output private saving punj real DM appreciation Real Effective Exchange real exchange rate real interest rates Real Long-Term Interest realignment scenario reference scenario relative to baseline saving/investment model Scenarios of German short run simulations of GEMSU Table target U.S. dollars variables XOOZ