Toward a New Iron Age?: Quantitative Modeling of Resource Exhaustion
Harvard University Press, 1987 - Business & Economics - 173 pages
Experts agree that the earth will eventually run out of certain low-cost, nonrenewable resources, possibly as early as a century from now. Will the transition to reliance on other, more abundant resources be smooth or discontinuous? Might industrial societies experience a marked decline in living standards--a radically different kind of society from the one we now know? Geologists maintain that once inexpensive high-grade resources are exhausted, economic growth will slow. Economists are more optimistic: they believe that new technologies and materials will be substituted rapidly enough to prevent major economic dislocations.
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0.1 percent amount of copper assumed assumptions backstop resources base calculated Canadian Shield common rock Communication competitive markets constraints copper and aluminum copper deposits copper extracted copper metal copper minerals copper model copper resources copper scarcity copper services copper-equivalent services correspondence principle demand categories demand for copper discount factor discounted cost dollars economic equilibrium economic growth efficiency price electronic wire energy estimate example exhaustion extraction costs factor future gangue geochemically scarce grade and tonnage heat exchangers industrial inputs iron Iron Age kilogram lognormal distribution mining open-pit mines Optic fiber patterns percent per annum period pound Precambrian present-value price price of copper processes pyrometallurgy quantities radiators recycling category recycling costs ruling properties scarcity of copper scarcity rent scrap short tons silicate minerals smelting stratabound substitute for copper substitute material substitution costs superabundant Table technological change tion United variables