Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country (Google eBook)

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Peterson Institute
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A technical tour de force, Cline's Global Warming and Agriculture has added a much needed piece to the climate change puzzle. The research detailed within uses six respected climate models (general ... Read full review

Contents

Introduction and Overview
1
Plan of the Book
3
Brief Survey of Existing Literature
7
Key Issues Carbon Fertilization Irrigation and Trade Carbon Fertilization
23
The Irrigation Question
26
Figure 31b Irrigation and precipitation for US states
28
Trade as Moderator?
32
CountryLevel Climate Projections
35
Table 61 Production of four major crops by major producers and world 200104 annual average million metric tons
90
Table 62 Average annual increase in yields per hectare percent
92
Table 63 Meat consumption per capita kilograms per person per year
93
Conclusion
95
Table 71 Summary estimates for impact of global warming on world agricultural output potential by the 2080s percent
96
APPENDICES
99
Standardizing Global Grids of Climate Change Data
101
Mapping Grid Cells to Countries
105

Table 41 General circulation models used for scenarios
36
Present Day and for 207099
37
Average temperature and precipitation C and mm per day annual averages
38
Table 43 Global landbased climate averages and changes 196190 to 207099
42
CountryLevel Agricultural Impact Estimates MendelsohnSchlesinger Agricultural Response Functions
43
Figure 51 Isoproduction curves for the MendelsohnSchlesinger reduced form function
44
MendelsohnSchlesinger Estimates for the United States
46
Ricardian Estimates for Developing Countries and Canada
47
Table 52 Impact of global warming by the 2080s on Indian agricultural productivity using the MendelsohnDinarSanghi model
50
Table 53 Impact of climate change by the 2080s on African agriculture World Bank Ricardian models without carbon fertilization
51
Table 55 Impact of global warming by the 2080s on agricultural
57
Sensitivity to Climate Models
59
Table 56 Dispersion of MendelsohnSchlesinger Richardian Model Estimates across climate models
60
Rosenzweig et al Crop Model Results
61
Synthesis of Preferred Estimates
63
Table 57 RosenzweigIglesias Agricultural impact estimates for the 2080s four major grains and oilseeds percent change in yield
64
Table 58 Preferred esitmates of baseline global warming by the 2080s on the world agriculture
67
Figure 52 Impact on agricultural productivity without carbon fertilization percent
74
Figure 53 Impact on agricultural productivity with carbon fertilization percent
75
Figure 54 Percent change in agricultural capacity by the 2080s in 47 countries and regions without carbon fertilization
76
Table 59 Change in agricultural capacity by regional aggregates percent
77
Comparison to Estimates in the ModelSource Studies
80
Dynamic Considerations
87
Figure 61 Income elasticity of demand for food tobacco and beverages and purchasing power parity PPP income per capita
88
Calculating the Geographical Area of the Grid Cell
109
Definitions of Countries Regions and Subzones
111
Table D1 Subzones of largest countries
112
Estimating Farm Area and Agricultural Output by Country Region and Subzone
115
Table E1 Estimated land area farm area and agricultural output by country region and subzone
119
CountryLevel Results with the MendelsohnSchlesinger Functions
123
MendelsohnSchlesinger reduced form model
125
MendelsohnSchlesinger crosssection Ricardian model
130
Ricardian Models for India Africa and Latin America
137
Table G1 Ricardian model for India
138
Table G2 Ricardian models for Africa
139
Table G3 Ricardian functions for Argentina Brazil Chile and Ecuador
140
Appendix H Monthly Climate Data 196190 and 207099
141
Table H1 Average temperature JanuaryJune
142
Table H2 Average temperature JulyDecember
147
Table H3 Average precipitation JanuaryJune
152
Table H4 Average precipitation JulyDecember
157
Appendix I Dispersion of Climate Projections Across General Circulation Models
163
Table 11 Coefficient of variation for future climate projections of six models
165
References
169
Glossary
175
Index
179
Copyright

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Page x - States, other rich countries, and such institutions as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Trade Organization to improve the economic and social development prospects in poor countries.
Page xiii - Edward W. Scott, Jr. * Adam Solomon Lawrence H. Summers Jean Claude Trichet Laura D'Andrea Tyson Paul A. Volcker Jacob Wallenberg * Dennis Weatherstone Edward E. Whitacre, Jr. Marina vN Whitman Ernesto Zedillo Ex officio * C. Fred Bergsten Nancy Birdsall Richard N. Cooper Honorary Chairman, Executive Committee * Anthony M.
Page x - Organization to improve the economic and social development prospects in poor countries. The Center's Board of Directors bears overall responsibility for the Center and includes distinguished leaders of nongovernmental organizations, former officials, business executives, and some of the world's leading scholars of development. The Center receives advice on its research and policy programs from the Board and from an Advisory Committee that comprises respected development specialists and advocates....

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