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100 Village Survey 20 percent average vulnerability capita expenditures CCED changes in expenditures changes in log coefficient of variability current consumption expenditures currently in poverty Defining Vulnerability deviation of changes education level Engel Curve episode of poverty estimate the variability estimated measurement error expenditure changes fall into poverty female headed female-headed households groups of households headcount poverty rate headcount vulnerable rate hence higher mean horizon household expenditures households are vulnerable increases the VPL indicate that female-headed Indonesia instrumental variable inter-temporal change landless Lant Pritchett least one episode level of expenditures level of vulnerability log expenditures log percapita expenditures male headed households mean per capita Mini-Susenas number of households odds or worse persistently poor poor mean expenditures poverty line quantitative ratio of vulnerable rural households standard deviation Sumarto Suryahadi Susenas targeting UNDP urban variability in expenditures Village Survey sample vulnerability analysis vulnerability and headcount vulnerable to poor vulnerable to poverty World Bank