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according accuracy analysis actual buying prices actual changes actual selling prices aggregate assumption average balance series balances basic test variates behaviour bias Chapter commodity exports components considered constant terms constraints corresponding covariance matrix decreases dependent variable derived distributed lag disturbances Dutch Econometric Economic exogenous expected buying prices explanatory variables firms forecasting errors fractions Frequency distributions function generalisation GERMAN LEATHER hence implies increase indifference curves inequality coefficients instrument investment lagged leather and shoe linear loss of welfare maximisation mean value method multicollinearity negative Netherlands noncontrolled variables observed parameters planned selling prices plausible point estimates point predictions policy-maker predetermined variables predictions and actual preferred quadratic quadratic form quartiles relations respect result sample Scandinavia Scatter diagrams Section shoe industry standard deviations statistical stochastic stocks Suppose Table tion traders in hides turning point errors two-stage least-squares underestimation of changes variance vector zero