Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-Offs

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Cambridge University Press, Jul 1, 1993 - Business & Economics - 569 pages
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Many of the complex problems faced by decision makers involve multiple conflicting objectives. This book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe his true feelings in order to make those critically important, vexing trade-offs between incommensurable objectives. The theory is illustrated by many real concrete examples taken from a host of disciplinary settings. The standard approach in decision theory or decision analysis specifies a simplified single objective like monetary return to maximise. By generalising from the single objective case to the multiple objective case, this book considerably widens the range of applicability of decision analysis.
  

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Contents

THE PROBLEM
1
12 Paradigm of Decision Analysis
5
13 Comments About the Paradigm
7
14 Complex Value Problems
14
15 Classes of Examples and Methodological Nightmares
19
16 Organization of Remaining Chapters
26
THE STRUCTURING OF OBJECTIVES
31
21 Objectives and Attributes
32
65 The Additive Utility Function
295
66 Assessing Multiattribute Utility Functions
297
67 A Fundamental Relationship Between Preferential Independence and Utility Independence
310
68 Relationships Among Utility Independence Assumptions
316
69 Decomposition of Multiattribute Utility Functions
319
610 Additional Representation Theorems
324
611 Hierarchical Structures and Conditional Preferences
332
612 Summary
343

22 Generation of Objectives and Attributes
34
23 Hierarchical Nature of Objectives
41
24 Sets of Objectives and Attributes
49
25 Proxy Attributes and Direct Preferences Measurements
55
26 Summary and Perspective on the Practical Aspects of Specifying Objectives and Attributes
64
TRADEOFFS UNDER CERTAINTY
66
32 Choice Procedures That Do Not Formalize Preference Structures
69
33 Structuring of Preferences and Value Functions
77
34 Preference Structures and Value Functions for Two Attributes
82
35 The Case of Three Attributes
100
36 The Case of More Than Three Attributes
108
An Abstract Hypothetical Example
117
38 Willingness to Pay
125
39 Brief Summary and Guide to Some Relevant Literature
129
UNIDIMENSIONAL UTILITY THEORY
131
42 Direct Assessment of Utilities for Consequences
140
43 Unidimensional Utility Functions
141
44 Risk Aversion
148
45 A Measure of Risk Aversion
159
46 Constant Decreasing and Increasing Risk Aversion
165
47 Proportional Risk Aversion
174
48 Monotonically Decreasing and Nonmonotonic Utility Functions
179
49 A Procedure for Assessing Utility Functions
188
410 Illustrations of the Assessment of Unidimensional Utility Functions
203
411 Explicating a Single Attribute by Means of Multiple Attributes
212
412 Conditional Unidimensional Utility Theory
214
413 Where We Stand
218
MULTIATTRIBUTE PREFERENCES UNDER UNCERTAINTY THE TWOATTRIBUTE CASE
219
52 Utility Independence
224
53 Additive Independence and the Additive Utility Function
229
54 The Implications of Mutual Utility Independence
232
55 Use of Certainty Equivalents
242
56 Utility Functions with One UtilityIndependent Attribute
243
57 What to Do if No Independence Properties Hold
255
58 Assessment Procedure for Multiattribute Utility Functions
261
59 Interpreting the Scaling Constants
271
510 The Assessment of a Utility Function in a Hospital Blood Bank
273
MULTIATTRIBUTE PREFERENCES UNDER UNCERTAINTY MORE THAN TWO ATTRIBUTES
282
62 Utility Function with Three Attributes
286
63 The Multiplicative Utility Function
288
64 The Multilinear Utility Function
293
Generalization of Preferential Independence and Utility Independence
345
Evaluating the Scaling Constant in the Multiplicative Utility Function
347
An Interactive Computer Program for Assessing and Using Multiattribute Utility Functions
349
ILLUSTRATIVE APPLICATIONS
354
71 Air Pollution Control
355
72 Preference Tradeoffs among Instructional Programs
365
73 Fire Departments Operations
377
74 Structuring Corporate Preferences for Multiple Objectives
390
75 Evaluating Computer Systems
408
76 Siting and Licensing of Nuclear Power Facilities
412
77 Other Applications
417
AIRPORT DEVELOPMENT FOR MEXICO CITY A CASE STUDY
436
82 Background Information
437
83 Evolution of the Analysis
441
84 The Static Model
442
85 Specifying the Possible Impacts of Each Alternative
445
86 Assessing the Multiattribute Utility Function
451
87 The Analysis
459
88 The Dynamic Analysis
463
89 Impact of the Results
470
PREFERENCES OVER TIME
473
91 Characteristics of the Time Problem
474
Value Functions over Time Streams
476
Utility Functions over Time Streams
488
94 Relaxing the Independence Assumptions
493
95 Uncertain Horizon
497
96 StateDependent Utilities
501
97 Problems of Application
503
98 Time Resolution of Uncertainty
509
Derivation of a Utility Function for Consumption and Lifetime
513
AGGREGATION OF INDIVIDUAL PREFERENCES
515
101 The Decision Maker as Synthesizer or Amalgamator
516
102 Aggregating Individuals Preferences under Certainty
523
104 Additive Utility and Equity Considerations
532
105 Appraisal of the Independence Assumptions
536
106 Assessing Group Utility Functions
539
107 Uses of Multiattribute Utility Analysis for Groups
542
Bibliography
549
Index
561
Copyright

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JSTOR: Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value ...
Decisions with Multiple Objectives' Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. Ralph L. Keeney and Howard Raiffa. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1976. xxviii q- ...
links.jstor.org/ sici?sici=0162-1459(197709)72%3A359%3C683%3ADWMOPA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-3

rl Keeney, H. Raiffa: Decisions with multiple objectives ...
cu. RL. Keeney,. H. Raiffa: Decisions with. Multiple Objectives-Preferences. and Value Tradeofs, Cambridge. University Press, Cambridge &. New York, ...
doi.wiley.com/ 10.1002/ bs.3830390206

Strategic Decision Making References
rl Keeney and H. Raiffa, Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs, Wiley, New York, 1976. lr Keller and jl Ho, ``Decision Problem ...
www.public.asu.edu/ ~kirkwood/ SDMBook/ sdm.htm

Decisions with Multiple Objectives
Cambridge University Press 0521438837 - Decisions with Multiple Objectives - by Ralph L. Keeney, Howard Raiffa, With contributions by Richard Meyer ...
assets.cambridge.org/ 97805214/ 38834/ description/ 9780521438834_description.htm

FAOBIB
English title: Decisions with multiple objectives: preferences and value tradeoffs. Serial: Wiley Series in Probability and Mathematical Statistics (USA) ...
www4.fao.org/ cgi-bin/ faobib.exe?rec_id=179546& database=faobib& search_type=link& table=mona& back_path=/ faobib/ mona& lan...

Le Monde en Tique -- KEENEY : DECISION WITH MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES ...
"Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs." Cambridge University Press, 1993, ISBN 0-521-43883-7 ...
www.lmet.fr/ fiche.cgi?_ISBN=9780521438834& _WORDS=hc

IFORS’ Operational Research Hall of Fame Howard Raiffa
Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. Wiley, New York. (reprinted, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1993). ...
www.blackwell-synergy.com/ doi/ pdf/ 10.1111/ j.1475-3995.2005.00529.x

THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN
THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN. Department of Management Science. And Information Systems. MIS 381N, 03928 Spring 2000 ...
www.mccombs.utexas.edu/ faculty/ jim.dyer/ DA_syllabi/ Dyer_BC.html

9. Evaluating natural resource management investment performance ...
59. 9. Evaluating natural resource management investment. performance with multi-attribute utility theory. Stefan Hajkowicz ...
www.regionalnrm.qld.gov.au/ research_sips/ sips/ social_economic/ pdf/ se03_monograph_chapter_9.pdf

Publications of rl Keeney
Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1976. [bibtex-entry] ...
www.esc.auckland.ac.nz/ people/ staff/ mehr002/ References/ Author/ KEENEY-RL.html

About the author (1993)

Ralph L. Keeney is a private consultant in San Francisco, as well as Professor of Systems Management, Institute of Safety and Systems Management, University of Southern California. He is coauthor (with Howard Raiffa) of Decisions with Multiple Objectives, which was awarded the Lanchester Prize of the Operations Research Society of America.

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