Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming

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MIT Press, 2003 - Business & Economics - 232 pages
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Humanity is risking the health of the natural environment through a myriad of interventions, including the atmospheric emission of trace gases such as carbon dioxide, the use of ozone-depleting chemicals, the engineering of massive land-use changes, and the destruction of the habitats of many species. It is imperative that we learn to protect our common geophysical and biological resources. Although scientists have studied greenhouse warming for decades, it is only recently that society has begun to consider the economic, political, and institutional aspects of environmental intervention. To do so raises formidable challenges of data modeling, uncertainty, international coordination, and institutional design.Attempts to deal with complex scientific and economic issues have increasingly involved the use of models to help analysts and decision makers understand likely future outcomes as well as the implications of alternative policies. This book presents in detail a pair of models of the economics of climate change. The models, called RICE-99 (for the Regional Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy) and DICE-99 (for the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy) build on the authors' earlier work, particularly their RICE and DICE models of the early 1990s. They can help policy makers design better economic and environmental policies.

  

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Contents

1 Reference case output across model generations
5
The Structure and Derivation of RICE99
9
Calibration of the Major Sectors
27
1 Regional details of the RICE99 model
28
2 Major regional aggregates in RICE99 regions
39
1 Industrial C02output ratios for thirteen RICE
42
6 Comparison of RICE99 with Maddison projections
48
2 Growth in per capita output
50
1 The Basic policies of the RICE model
110
Efficient ClimateChange Policies
121
1 Alternative policies analyzed in RICE99
122
2 Global net economic impact of policies
128
Alternative policies
134
6 Emissions control rates in alternative policies
137
7 Regional industrial C02 emissions in base case
138
Economic Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol
145

5 Impulse response functions for different models
61
9 NonC02 radiative forcings according to IPCC90
63
The Impacts of Climate Change
69
1 Estimated impact from IPCC report 1996
70
4 Estimated damages on agriculture from
76
8 Impact of global warming on climaterelated
83
10 Summary of impacts in different sectors
91
1 Agricultural damage function
92
11 Comparison of recent impact studies United States
97
The DICE99 Model
99
1 Calibration error in DICE reference case
102
1 Comparison of RICE99 and DICE99 results
103
Computational Procedures
107
1 Runs for the analysis of Kyoto Protocol
147
2 Atmospheric C02 concentration
152
3 Comparison of global mean temperature increase
153
6 Abatement costs in different regions for different
159
9 Net economic impact by region
165
Managing the Global Commons
169
Equations of RICE99 Model
179
GAMS Code for RICE99 Base Case and Optimal
189
GAMS Code for DICE99
207
References
217
Index
227
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About the author (2003)

William D. Nordhaus is Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University.

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