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1050 Massachusetts Avenue aggregate economy agricultural sector B-coefficients behavior of real budget deficits Bureau of Economic Business Cycle coefficient CPI price index Dani Rodrik disinflation Economic Research economic variable eprr estimated real rate estimates of real evidence ex ante real ex post real expected inflation explanatory variable farm products inflation Fisher effect futures market data heteroscedasticity high real rates Huizinga and Mishkin inflation forecast errors inflation rate interest rate behavior know about real monetary policy regime monetary regime shift NBER nominal interest rates Number October 1979 change one-month bill rate one-period bond own-commodity real rates paper post real interest post real rate pre-October 1979 period process of real rate for farm rates and expected rational expectations real interest rates real rate behavior real rate regressions real return regression equation regression residual result serially correlated standard errors statistical power stochastic process Takatoshi Ito tion uncorrelated UNDERSTANDING REAL INTEREST variance