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Measuring the Accuracy of Point Predictions
in a PredictionRealization Diagram
89 other sections not shown
average average information backcast cent chapter column conditional forecasts conditional probabilities consider consumption correct forecasts correlation corresponding cumulation rule dependent variable difference distribution endogenous endogenous variables equation estimates example exogenous expected information explanatory variables Export price level extrapolation final demand forecast errors forecasts and realizations fractions frequency given guilders Hence implies important increase predictions indicate indifference interval industry information content information inaccuracy information theory input coefficients input-output table intermediate demand inventories investment larger linear log-change macroeconomic mean square error measurement error median natural logarithm negative no-change nonwage income observational errors obtain orders received output participants percentage period plan revision positive prediction error prediction-realization diagram primary input probability quartile ratio realized changes regression relative change response functions right-hand RMS error sales price Section sector input stage survey Tabel term turning point errors unconditional variance wage rate zero