Dilemmas of democratic consolidation: a game-theory approach
Why have so many attempts at democracy in the past half-century failed? Confronting this much discussed question, Jay Ulfelder offers a novel explanation for the coups and rebellions that have toppled fledgling democratic regimes and that continue to threaten many new democracies today.Ulfelder draws on an original dataset of 110 democratic failures spanning 1955ż2007 and also presents analytic narratives for six cases (Cyprus, Fiji, Spain, Thailand, Ukraine, and Venezuela) to illustrate why some governments survive while others collapse. Focusing on political parties and the military as key players in the żdemocracy game,ż he sheds light on the pathways by which new democracies slide all too often from founding elections to polarization and breakdown.
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The Democracy Game
How Fragile Is Democracy?
How Does Democracy Break Down?
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actors attempts at democracy authoritarian authoritarian regime authoritarian rule autocracy Bainimarama believe civil collective action commitments constitution cooperation countries country's coup attempt coup or rebellion coups and rebellions credible Cyprus defect democracy assistance Democracy Game democracy promotion democracy survives democracy's democratic breakdown democratic consolidation democratic government democratic regimes developed economic effect elected government electoral elites episodes of democracy Exec executive coup expected costs expected payoffs failed failure favor Fiji Fiji's forces gains game-theoretic game-theoretic model Greek Cypriots Honduran incentives incumbent party independent indigenous Fijians Indo-Fijians interests Islamists Kuchma leftist military coup military leaders military's officers opposition organizations outcomes pacts partisan military players political parties prefer president prospects PSOE punishment rival seize power Sierra Leone specific strategic structural survival of democracy Thailand Thaksin theoretical model theories of democratic threat try to usurp Turkish Cypriots Ukraine USAID usurp power Venezuela