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aggregate algorithm alternative analytical assessment assumptions average Box-Jenkins calculated capacity capital changes commercial conservation constraints construction consumed decision determine econometric economic effects efficiency elasticity energy analysis energy costs energy demand energy inputs energy models energy policy energy prices energy production energy quality energy requirements energy sources energy supply energy system environmental equation equipment estimates evaluation example factors Federal Energy Administration feed system Figure flow forecast fossil fuel function future gasohol growth heating degree days impact important increase industrial input-output analysis investment labor linear programming load duration curve methodology National natural gas node nuclear oil and gas Oil Shale operating optimal output pipeline planning plants problem projected ratio reduce region Research residential resource scenario sector simulation solar energy specific storage structure technologies thermal tidal power tion units utility variables