Planning for Long-term Security in Central Europe: Implications of the New Strategic EnvironmentThe recent changes in Europe have transformed the strategic landscape and altered what can be accomplished with respect to security. This report proposes a framework of new NATO objectives and a strategy for accomplishing them. The approach recognizes the desirability of achieving long-term stability--a state characterized by robust security, predictability, the absence of crises and dangerous international tensions, a "reasonable" defense burden that is either constant or shrinking, and public satisfaction with the situation. To achieve this objective, the authors recommend thinking in terms of five subordinate objectives: (1) deter, without provocation, a Soviet invasion of Western Europe; (2) deter, without provocation, Soviet reentry into Eastern Europe; (3) maintain strategic equivalence; (4) deter rearmament; and (5) reduce sources of conflict and tension. |
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Contents
THE SEARCH FOR LONGTERM | 7 |
Maintaining Strategic Equivalence | 21 |
Appendix | 35 |
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Achieve long-term stability air defenses air forces analysis antitank guided missiles armed neutrality Blue buffer zone capability Central Europe command constraints core strategy CSBMs Cuthbertson and Volten Czechoslovakia Davis deep cuts deep reductions deep-cuts regime defender's defense burden Deter rearmament Deterring Aggression doctrine East-West Eastern Europe Elements environment environment-shaping strategy example fense flexible FOFA force levels force structure former GDR German Democratic Republic hedging strategy Huber Hungary Illustrative important indirect-fire systems infantry interdiction invasion Kokoshin Kugler long-term security low force Maintain strategic equivalence military stability Mobile Force munitions nations NATO naval arms control negotiations nuclear weapons objectives offensive minimum Operation Barbarossa Poland political post-CFE provocation RAND RAND Corporation Reduce sources Romania scenario sources of tension Soviet analysts Soviet forces Soviet reentry Soviet Union stability diagram stabilizing measures strategic barriers strategic buffer strategic landscape Strategy for Deterring surprise attack tactical tension and conflict tion unilateral Watman weapon systems