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adjustment lending administrative resources affect the probability Alesina & Drazen Amemiya analytical commitment technology conditionality consistent estimator cost democratically elected government disbursed effect empirical endogenous error terms Ethnic Fractionalization exogenous exogenous variables F-statistic Failed Adjustment Programs failure of adjustment failure of reform Government Crisis hypothesis implement Initial Population log instruments length of tenure likelihood of successful linear probability model Loan Size log Macroeconomics number of conditions one-third of adjustment Operations Evaluation Department percent policy reform policy-based lending political economy literature political economy variables political instability political-economy factors political-economy variables poor policies Power2 predicted preparation and supervision preparation resources Preparation Staff Weeks Prior Analytical probability of success probit model probit regression regional dummies relationship between preparation Rodrik stabilization Structural Adjustment Loan structural reforms Sub-Saharan Africa success of adjustment success or failure successful reform supervision resources Supervision Staff Weeks Svensson Table 2a theoretical literature variance-covariance matrix World Bank's control Zambia zero-one indicator