Counterinsurgency Scorecard: Afghanistan in Early 2011 Relative to the Insurgencies of the Past 30 Years (Google eBook)

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Rand Corporation, Jun 1, 2011 - 26 pages
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A core finding of previous RAND research on 30 years of insurgencies worldwide was that a conflict's overall score on a scorecard of 15 equally weighted good and 12 equally weighted bad counterinsurgency factors and practices perfectly predicted the ultimate outcome. Using the scorecard approach and an expert elicitation (Delphi) exercise, a RAND project sought to extend the findings to the case of Afghanistan in early 2011.

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Findings from Previous Research on 30 Years of Insurgency1
APPENDIXDetails of the Expert Elicitation

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About the author (2011)

CHRISTOPHER PAUL is a social scientist working out of RAND's Pittsburgh office. He received his Ph.D. in sociology from UCLA in 2001. His current research interests include military influence operations, integration of air and naval forces, simulation training, press-military relations, counterterrorism, and military operations on urban terrain. He is the author of Information Operations (Praeger Security International, 2008).

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