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action plans alternate futures alternate scenarios analysis annual planning Arab oil embargo base plan basis budget chemical company chief executive chief executive officer Company Experience company planner company planning company's Conference Board considered Contingency Planning Process contingent event corporate planning Cross-impact analysis decision Delphi detailed development of scenarios division managers econometric economic effect energy environment etcetera example factors firm forecasting techniques formal Herman Kahn identify impact implemented involved issues less probable long-range plans long-term manufacturer ment methods monitoring moving average Multiple Scenarios ning number of companies occur operating managers operating units organization outlook pany percent planners believe planning assumptions planning cycle planning executive portunity predicting problems Regression analysis regular planning relevant reports response Sales Forecasting scenarios and contingency short-term significance situation specific strategies and actions ticipating tingency planning tion track trends trigger point types of contingencies uncertainty usually what-if