This is a business forecasting text that is appropriate for courses in business schools. It focuses on the methods that professional forecasters have found useful and provides a practical tool for students and practitioners. The examples used apply to the Windows version of SORITEC, a commercial software forecasting package. Real-world perspective is given by sidebars written by practitioners and emphasis is placed on the visual inspection of data.
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Two Simple Naive Models
Forecasting Sales of The Gap
35 other sections not shown
95 percent confidence actual values ARIMA bootstrap Box-Jenkins Business Forecasting calculated Chapter combined forecast command line correlogram cycle factor data series data set deseasonalized dialog box Differencing diskette disposable personal income domestic car sales dummy variables Durbin-Watson Durbin-Watson statistic ECONDATA estimates evaluation example exponential smoothing Figure forecast horizon forecast values forecasting methods forecasting model four quarters Gap sales gapsales graph Historic before 95 historic period Holdout Holt's exponential smoothing independent variables Index Journal of Business linear mean menu mortgage rate moving average moving-average multiple-regression model normal distribution observations Partial Autocorrelation pattern private housing starts quarterly regression analysis regression model regression results retail sales RMSE RSSA sales data sample Schwarz Criterion seasonally adjusted serial correlation shown Signf simple exponential smoothing smoothing constant SORITEC standard deviation standard error statistical Std Err T-stat Table time-series decomposition time-series plot trend Winters zero