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18-Month Forecast administration American banks Bush capital COLON AND PPD Contras Costa Rica counterrevolutionary current account debt DECISION STRUCTURE decline Delvalle Democratic Revolutionary Party DIVIDED GOVERNMENT domestic economic policies Edward Seaga elections ESQUIVEL exports federal FORECAST & PROBABILITY forecast period foreign exchange foreign investment FROST & SULLIVAN FSLN groups growth HARD-LINE FSLN Hernandez Colon Honduras imports increase industry Inflation International business island Jamaica Labour Party labor leaders leadership Madrid major Manley Manuel Noriega Mexican Michael Manley military million Moderate National Nicaragua Noriega opposition Panama PATTERSON permission of JAMAICA permission of MEXICO permission of PANAMA permission ol NICARAGUA political turmoil POPULISTS PRAGMATIC FSLN president presidential problems production Puerto Rico Reagan REGIME FORECAST Repatriation Reproduction without written Republicans RESTRICTIONS ON INTERNATIONAL Rican Sandinista Seaga sector SLIGHTLY LESS tariff TECHNOCRATS trade unemployment unions United violence wage workers written permission ol