Profit from the peak: the end of oil and the greatest investment event of the century
Profit from the Peak contains the information you need to successfully navigate the end of our oil-based economy. It takes a hard look at the future of oil and gas, examines how you can effectively invest in these resources, and profit from energy alternatives that are poised to power the years ahead. Along the way, this book also explores the potential, and possible limitations, of each major energy source, while carefully cover the investing angles of each one.
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Profit from the Peak is a book that I've been wanting to review for a while. An interesting premise is suggested in the sub-title. From some of the blogs that I follow it sounded like it may provide for an interesting read.
A little background on myself. With over 25 years of experience in the oil and gas industry I could see this "Peak Oil" energy train wreck starting. In August 2003 I came up with an idea on how to solve it. And in September 2003 started the research into using the oil and gas industry standard JOC (Joint Operating Committee) as the key organizational construct of the innovative oil and gas producer. If we moved the compliance and governance that the hierarchy managed, with the legal, financial, operational decision making and cultural frameworks of the JOC. We would achieve an alignment in all five frameworks that would enable the science and engineering needs of the industry to be the focus, and mitigate the effects of Peak Oil.
What does this mean. As most people know oil and gas is made up of partnerships between companies. This is to reduce the risks inherent in the business, and because the aerial extent of many of the properties, multiple owners work together. Since its beginning this has been the culture of the industry. And as one can imagine their are legal documents, financial distributions and operational decisions made with the input of the producers in the JOC. What isn't done is the competition to this software development project, SAP, Oracle and Qbyte, haven't a clue what a JOC is. Their focus is on the compliance and governance and therefore only provide the producer with at best 20% of the functionality.
The other major finding that I published was the software defines and supports the organization. Noting that SAP is the bureaucracy. To change an organization, one must first change the software. If we want innovative oil and gas producers, we need to build the software first. Or be relegated to manual systems. So this is what I have written about since the publication of my research in May 2004 and the posts in this blog. But enough about me lets review this book.
The first point I want to make is based on the following quotation in the Introduction and its associated implications. And regarding this graph entitled "Worldwide Oil Production".
For the past 50 years, we have explored the entire earth intensively looking for more oil. But despite the latest technology and the most elaborate efforts, global oil discovery peaked in 1962 and has declined relentlessly ever since. Generally we are finding less and less oil each year, and for the past 25 years, we have consumed more oil than we have found. In 2006 we found about 6 billion barrels of oil, but we consumed 28 billion, and the trends continue in the direction of increasing demand and decreasing supply. pp xvi - xvii
Although Peak Oil accurately captures where I think we may be in the history of the industry. My opinion is that we have established a high water mark that may be permanent. The graph clearly shows the discoveries peaked in 1962 and have declined since that time.
My question to the authors and everyone interested in this topic. Does this graph mean all the oil was discovered by 1962? Or did the industry stop looking for more oil after 1962. Now this is not an accusation that they purposely stopped exploring. But consider the world had an abundant volume of energy. Prices were in the very low single digits, and the need to "develop" these resources became the focus. This situation was followed by the 1980's and 1990's where low oil prices were causing no end of greif to the producers. The industry more or less cannibalized itself to survive over those two decades. To say that technologies in 1965 discovered all of the oil is an assumption that the Peak Oil theorists may have incorrectly assumed. Based on my current understanding of the oil and gas industry. Read the rest of this review on my website http://innovation-in-oil-and-gas.blogspot.com
Review: Profit from the Peak: The End of Oil and the Greatest Investment Event of the Century (Angel Series)User Review - Goodreads
Great Book Very current info.
WHAT IS PEAK OIL?
WANTED FIVE NEW SAUDI ARABIAS
480 A BARREL THE TRUE VALUE OF OIL
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