Projecting Pyongyang: The Future of North Korea's Kim Jong Il Regime
The author seeks to assist planners and decisionmakers in thinking about and preparing for possible future contingencies concerning North Korea. He does not dwell on war or conflict scenarios involving North Korea because military planners have already focused considerable effort and attention on these. It is entirely possible that the fate of the country as a political, territorial, and juridical entity is intimately bound up with the fate of the Kim Jong Il regime, but one should not assume this to be so. In other words, the collapse of the Kim regime may not lead to the collapse of North Korea as a state. Moreover, one should not assume that even if the regime collapse is followed by state collapse that these events would inexorably lead to Korean unification.
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THE FUTURE OF NORTH KOREAS KIM JONG ILREGIME
THE FUTURE OF WHAT? STATE VERSUSREGIME FAILURE VERSUS COLLAPSE
DEGREES OF DICTATORSHIP AND CRITERIAOF COLLAPSE
A FAILINGERODING TOTALITARIAN REGIME
FUTURE TRAJECTORIES AND SCENARIOS
North Korea asAlbania?
North Korea as China?
North Korea as Romania?
TOWARD A HYBRIDSCENARIO
CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS
KEY INDICATORS OF REGIME CHANGE
Albania Andrei Lankov Andrew Scobell Army War College Beijing Beijing’s challenges checklist of questions China collapsed regime country’s crash landing credible analyst Cuba decade DPRK economic reforms end of North Failed State Index Fidel Castro future trajectory glass is half gradual Haggard and Noland half empty half full hoc reforms holding pattern hybrid scenario ideology indicator of regime key indicators Kim Dynasty Kim Il Sung Kim Jong Kim regime Kim the Younger Korean unification Landing Hybrid Lankov leaders leadership succession Mao’s mass communication military monograph Moreover Nation-State Failure Nature of Nation-State North Korea political possible post-totalitarian Pyongyang elites Pyongyang regime regime change regime collapse regime type regime will collapse Republic of Korea Romania Rotberg Seoul significant Six Party Talks Soft Landing Soviet Union Stalin state’s status quo Strategic Studies Institute survived suspended animation systemic reform thoroughgoing reform totalitarian regime trends U.S. Army wild card