Evidence and inference for the intelligence analyst, Volume 1
This book, divided into two volumes, is intended to bring intelligence analysts and others abreast of current scholarship, from many disciplines, on the process of drawing conclusions from a mass of incomplete, inconclusive, and unreliable evidence. Volume I contains seventeen chapters on various evidential and inferential issues; though they contain some symbols and diagrams, the chapters in this volume contain almost no mathematics.
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lNTRODUCTlON AND OVERVlEW
COMMENTS ON CONTENT FORMAT AND STYLE
lNGREDlENTS AND REASONlNG PATTERNS OF lNFERENTlAL
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actually ancillary evidence argue argument assertion assumptions Bayes behavior believe Cohen combination concern consequences consider conventional probability corroborative counterfactual conditional credibility-related deductive reasoning difficult discussed evaluating event E occurred event F evidence items evidence law evidentiary subtleties EVlDENCE example expectations favoring H Figure forms of evidence happened hearsay evidence heuristics identified important inference problem inference tasks inferential value ingredients intelligence analysis interesting involves issues item of evidence judgments Larry Phillips likelihood ratio likeliness ln addition ln Chapter ln short major hypotheses matters nonindependence observed persons possible conclusions posterior probability present prior probability probabilistic probabilistic inference probability theory question reasoning chains reasoning stages redundant evidence rule Section Shafer Sherlock Holmes situation someone source credibility Source S1 sources of evidence Soviets specific structuring supplement Suppose tell true uncertainty value of evidence various weight of evidence Y-system