Russia 2010: And what it Means for the World : the CERA Report

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Vintage Books, 1995 - Business & Economics - 327 pages
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What will Russia be like in the year 2010? What impact will the future of Russia have on the West? And what could we do now to help shape a better future? In this brilliant and illuminating book, Daniel Yergin, the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Prize, and Thane Gustafson, leading expert on Russian politics and economics, present four "histories" of the future for Russia and offer a vision of "capitalism Russian style." The collapse of the Soviet Union and communism is the most important event at the end of the twentieth century. But what comes next? Using the unique technique of "scenario planning, " Yergin and Gustafson explore what the "new Russian revolution" will bring. Which scenario will it be? Will it be The Two-Headed Eagle, a Russia that looks forward and backward at the same time; The Long Good-bye, the dissolution of Russia; or the Russian Bear, a grim dictatorship, anti-West and turned in on itself? Or will it be Chudo, the Russian economic miracle? The authors analyze the consequences of each scenario for the United States and other countries, pointing to possible surprises. Yergin and Gustafson provide essential insight into emerging power relationships, local wars that could turn into larger conflicts, the time bombs of ethnic strife that sit on Russia's borders - and the economic and political opportunities facing us in the future. Russia 2010 grew out of a confidential study developed for a select group of international companies by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), a leading international consulting firm. Yergin and Gustafson focus on Russia's enormously difficult triple transition - from dictatorship to democracy, from communism to a market economy,and from empire to nation state. The authors envision the struggles ahead, as excommunists, scions of the security state, and defense industrialists vie with democrats and the new entrepreneurs for their share of Russia's future. Russia 2010 provides a framework for understanding

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About the author (1995)

Daniel Yergin was born in Los Angeles on February 6, 1947. He received a B. A. from Yale University in 1968 and an M. A. and Ph. D. from Cambridge University. Yergin is the chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, the vice chairman of the Global Decisions Group and has chaired the U. S. Department of Energy Task Force on the future of energy research. He is the author of The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power, which won the 1992 Pulitzer Prize for General Nonfiction and was made into a PBS/BBC series. His other published works include Shattered Peace: The Origins of the Cold War and the National Security State, The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World.

Thane Gustafson is Professor of Government at Georgetown University and Senior Director of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

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