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50 percent 7-item scale actual arrest rates annual arrest arrest reports arrest-rate average arrest rates California sample California Youth Authority Chaiken chronic offenders Cohen convicted robbers correlation CYA sample drug follow-up arrest rates follow-up period follow-up sample frequency distributions Greenwood and Abrahamse identify incapacitation effects individual arrest rates individual offense rates jail and prison juvenile facility low-rate offenders mean arrest rates mean offense rates median Medium High scale minimum offense rate number of arrests offense rate estimate ORIGINAL CALIFORNIA JAIL original RIS police Predicted Arrest predicted high predicted high-rate offenders predicted low Predicted Rate Actual predictive accuracy prior probability of arrest RAND Corporation RAND INMATE SURVEY rap sheet Receiving stolen property recidivism recorded arrests REGRESSION ANALYSIS release RIOC RIS data RIS respondents RIS sample robbery and burglary safety arrests sample of burglars sample of robbers scored Selective Incapacitation self-reported offense rates subsample Total Low two-year period preceding variables Visher