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Predictocracy: market mechanisms for public and private decision making

 By Michael Abramowicz

Predictocracy:

market mechanisms for public and private decision making
Front Cover
Yale University Press, 2007 - Business & Economics - 346 pages

Predicting the future is serious business for virtually all public and private institutions, for they must often make important decisions based on such predictions. This visionary book explores how institutions from legislatures to corporations might improve their predictions and arrive at better decisions by means of prediction markets, a promising new tool with virtually unlimited potential applications.

 

Michael Abramowicz explains how prediction markets work; why they accurately forecast elections, sports contests, and other events; and how they may even advance the ideals of our system of republican government. He also explores the ways in which prediction markets address common problems related to institutional decision making. Throughout the book the author extends current thinking about prediction markets and offers imaginative proposals for their use in an array of settings and situations.

 

  

What people are saying - Write a review

Almost a great book

User Review   - Peter McCluskey - Amazon.com -

This had the potential to be an unusually great book, which makes its shortcomings rather frustrating. It is loaded with good ideas, but it's often hard to distinguish the good ideas from the bad ... Read full review

Predictocracy Review

User Review   - Alexander Kirtland "UsableMarkets" - Amazon.com -

Michael Abrahmowicz, in his new book, Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making, resembles nothing so much as a nutritionist. He takes a piece of fruit (prediction ... Read full review

All 5 reviews »

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Common terms and phrases

Popular passages

Page 294 - Or, to change the metaphor slightly, professional investment may be likened to those newspaper competitions in which the competitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from a hundred photographs, the prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as a whole...
Page 335 - Michael C. Jensen and William H. Meckling, "Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs and Ownership Structure," Journal of Financial Economics 3 (1976): 305-59; R.
Page 337 - ... the discovery sought is unreasonably cumulative or duplicative, or is obtainable from some other source that is more convenient, less burdensome, or less expensive; (ii) the party seeking discovery has had ample opportunity by discovery in the action to obtain the information sought; or (iii) the burden or expense of the proposed discovery outweighs its likely benefit, taking into account the needs of the case, the amount in controversy, the parties...
Page 324 - all the women are strong, all the men are goodlooking, and all the children are above average.
Page 294 - We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be. And there are some, I believe, who practise the fourth, fifth and higher degrees.
Page 291 - You are to meet somebody in New York City. You have not been instructed where to meet; you have no prior understanding with the person on where to meet; and you cannot communicate with each other. You are simply told that you will have to guess where to meet and that he is being told the same thing and that you will just have to try to make your guesses coincide.
Page 50 - ... all other goods and articles, except onions as provided in Public Law 85-839, and all services, rights, and interests in which contracts for future delivery are presently or in the future dealt in...
Page 333 - Chevron [USA, Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc.], 467 US 837, 842-43, 104 S. Ct. at 2781-82. If Congress has not addressed directly the precise question at issue...

References to this book

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References from web pages

Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private ...
Prediction Markets For All. Find. Home · About · Archives · Authors · Best · Contact · Links · Predictions · Search · Site Map ...
www.midasoracle.org/ 2007/ 02/ 13/ predictocracy-market-mechanisms-for-public-and-private-decisionmaking-the-market-web/

Concurring Opinions
... has just published a new book, Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making (Yale University Press 2008). ...
www.concurringopinions.com/ archives/ 2008/ 01/ michael_abramow.html

Predictocracy
Book Description. Predicting the future is serious business for virtually all public and private institutions, for they must often make important decisions ...
predictocracy.org/

The Volokh Conspiracy - Predictocracy vs. Futarchy:
[Michael Abramowicz, guest-blogging, February 2, 2008 at 9:05am] Trackbacks. Predictocracy vs. Futarchy:. In describing normative markets in my book, ...
volokh.com/ posts/ 1201909754.shtml

Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision ...
Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making von Abramowicz, Michael. Typ: Hardcover, Softcover. Umfang: 346 S. ...
www.moneyhouse.ch/ buchshop/ Predictocracy-Market_Mechanisms_for_Public_and_Private_Decision_Making/ Abramowicz_Michael...

Overcoming Bias: Predictocracy vs. Futarchy
A forum for those serious about trying to overcome their own biases in beliefs and actions
www.overcomingbias.com/ 2008/ 02/ predictocracy-v.html

Technorati: Discussion about “Predictocracy”
Predictocracy. http://goodmorningeconomics.wordpress.com/ 2008/ 03/ 03/ predictocracy/. I am reading Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private ...
technorati.com/ posts/ 1iI2vL0lpBq0g8ZhfHVdIKDpZuzOsgH12MNnswACKSY%3D

usablemarkets - markets, design, usability, research » Book Reviews
Michael Abramowicz, in his new book, Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making, resembles nothing so much as a nutritionist. ...
www.usablemarkets.com/ ?cat=9

Good Morning, Economics
One of the most interesting concepts I learned from Michael Abramowicz’s Predictocracy (which I have mentioned before) is the idea of a “normative ...
goodmorningeconomics.wordpress.com/ feed/

Segnala "Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private ...
Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making · Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making ...
www.webster.it/ product_recommend.html?prod_id=BUS0300115997

About the author (2007)

Michael Abramowicz is associate professor of law, George Washington University. He lives in Arlington, VA.

Bibliographic information