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aggregate data aggregate time series alcohol consumption Ann-Charlotte Ståhlberg association between unemployment attributable fraction autocorrelated Box-Jenkins cause of death census cirrhosis correlation cross-correlations Deriving Relative Risks ecological ECONOMlC effect of unemployment Epidemiology and Community Eskil Wadensjö exposed exposure follow-up period higher lags hypothetical example indirect effects input series Journal of Epidemiology Kjell Sehlstedt lag structure Lena Schroder Lilienfeld lnstitute for Social lversen macro estimates macro measures measures of association MEDDELANDE micro and macro micro data micro macro mortality per 100 mortality rate Moser omitted variable bias panel data PRlClNG Relationship between Unemployment relative risk RR risk factor RlSKS FROM AGGREGATE Robert Erikson Schlesselman selection bias selection effects series analysis series data series estimates sociological SOClAL lNSURANCE SOClAL MOBlLlTY lN source of bias specific cause Stockholm suicide rate Sven E Olsson Swedish lnstitute Thor Norstrom UNEM Unemployment and mortality unemployment and suicide unexposed category unstandardized regression coefficient Walter Korpi