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inferential problems and the formal scientific
JUDGMENTAL HEURISTICS AND KNOWLEDGE
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ability accuracy accurate actor Amos Tversky assessment attribution theory availability heuristic base rates base-rate behavior beliefs bias biased causal analysis causal attribution causal explanations causal theories causes chapter characterization classical conditioning cognitive colleagues concrete condition consensus information consider correlation covariation Daniel Kahneman debriefing demonstration diagnostic domains effects erroneous estimates everyday evidence example experience experimental failure formal fundamental attribution error given human hypothesis Illusory correlation impact important individual inferences inferential strategies inferential tasks influence intuitive scientist judgments knowledge structures layperson less likelihood manipulations mental events motivational Nisbett and Wilson normative object observers one's outcomes particular people's perceptions perseverance person preconceptions predictions predictor primacy effects probably probative problems processes psychology question regression relatively relevant reported representativeness heuristic response result Ross sample sample bias schema script seems simple situation social psychology sometimes sophomore slump statistical stereotypes stimuli target tendency tion typical variable versus vivid information