Are Model-based Inflation Forecasts Used in Monetary Policymaking?: A Case Study |
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Contents
in this paper we describe the uses to which such a model can be put in the policymaking | 8 |
How can an incomplete model be used? | 20 |
Concluding remarks | 31 |
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Common terms and phrases
actual inflation assessment assumption Banca d'Italia Bank of Italy basis points behaviour BIQM cent central bank changes coefficient composite inflationary pressure Consensus forecast December depreciation Deutsche Mark difference disinflation econometric elementary periods equilibrium estimated equation expected value fiscal forecast errors forecasting rounds forecasts produced future inflation given incomplete model inflation expectations inflation forecasts inflation targets inflationary pressure indicator initial conditions Italian lira Italy's labour cost agreements lagged repo rate lagged value latter lira lira/DM exchange rate loss function subject measure of inflationary model forecasts model simulations model-based monetary policymaking month monthly profile Nicoletti Altimari number of repos observed P₁ percentage points policy instrument policy interest rate policy rule policy transmission channels policymaker's possibility reaction rule real interest rate regression repo operations result role Romer Rudebusch and Svensson sample period September sequence shortfall significant Siviero and Terlizzese tail probability target values Tinbergen underlying trend variable Visco Weighted average