## An economic analysis of carryover policies for the United States wheat industry |

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### Contents

Introduction ____________________________________________ __ | 5 |

Results from Simulating the Three Basic Models ______________ __ | 23 |

Sensitivity Analysis ______________________________________ __ | 51 |

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### Common terms and phrases

400 million bushels acreage determination acreage is set acreage is tied acreage situations aggregate demand assumed equilibrium carryover level coefficient of variation corr-spond to thos cost and total current period decreases desired carryover disequilibrium situations dynamic programming analysis economic elasticity equilibrium price equilibrium quantity expected value free market gim-n in Tabl gross income higher III2 III4 III6 immm inventory model inventory policy iterations loss function lower price market determined Mod-l Model III numb-rs corr-spond Operation of Model percent Pric price limits price of 120 price range price spread prices and incomes quantity marketed random represented by Model reserve management policy reserve stock set autonomously shows simulation model Simulation Results situation IIIM situations of Model social cost stability stochastic storage cost target carryover three consuming sectors tion total loss total social loss total supply variables wheat wheat prices yield zero inventory