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absence of speculation adjustment process analysis ARTUS Asymptotic avoiding speculation balance of trade Bank of France Banque de France based on eqs central banks Centre for Economic CHAMPSAUR Charles Wyplosz condition cost function current account balance current account surplus curve date of realignment Dean Taylor define Desired transactions balances Deutsche Bundesbank devaluation dynamic stability Economic Policy Research equation European Monetary System exchange rate favor of France figure following realignment French capital controls French current account French deposits French franc French interest rate French official reserves French reserves Frenchmen German Mark German reserves GOURIEROUX Hence International intersection J.C. ROCHET LAROQUE leads and lags Macroeconomic MALINVAUD mark MELITZ minimum MONFORT necessarily output positive possible realignment Prance prior realignment dates realignment rule reflected relative reserves to fall rise Salant speculative attack spot price sufficiently target reserves term three major realignments trade TROGNON uncertainty of realignment