An Appraisal of Short-term Economic ForecastsFirst report on a study of short term economic forecasting in the USA. Statistical tables, and references. |
Contents
A COLLECTION OF AGGREGATIVE ECONOMIC FORECASTS | 9 |
Individ | 17 |
SHORTRUN VARIATIONS IN FORECASTERS PERFORMANCE | 20 |
Copyright | |
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actual and predicted actual changes actual values annual forecasts average errors bias billion dollars business cycle chain forecasts change errors Changes and Errors Chart column comparisons correlation cyclical decline decreases directional errors economic errors in forecasts estimates extrapolative models F-ratio false signals fore forecast errors Forecast G Forecast months forecast sets forecasts of GNP forecasts proper GNP and industrial GNP forecasts government expenditures Gross National Product Gross private domestic increases index points individual forecasts industrial production forecasts Industrial production index intervals intraforecast changes Jacob Mincer lines mean absolute errors Mean Errors mean square errors multiperiod forecasts numbers of observations over-all overestimates periods covered Personal consumption expenditures plant and equipment predicted changes private domestic investment R₁ ranks Ratio R1 relative root mean square set F set G smaller Span of Forecast summary measures Table 18 Table 9 tion turning points turning-point errors underestimation variables