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absolute error Amos Tversky background information based on incomplete best estimates bias biasing effect Brenner Center on Conflict child custody conﬁdence and accuracy conﬁdence in predictions conﬂicting course credit David Thornton defendant arguments Defendant-only condition difference in uncertainty Drug issue effect of information effect of one-sided Evaluation of One-sided favor ﬁlled ﬁnd ﬁrst issue greater conﬁdence incomplete information judgments Jury condition Jury estimates jury members jury vote jury’s less conﬁdence mean best guesses mean Defendant-only estimates mean error mean estimates mean Plaintiff-only Mean uncertainty ranges non-jury subjects nonvoting subjects null result number of jurors one-sided arguments one-sided evidence one-sided information conditions one’s opposing side overconﬁdence persuasive Plaintiff-only condition Plaintiff-only estimates predicted the number predicting the jury ranges indicate Rape issue sets of information signiﬁcant differences signiﬁcantly greater Stanford University statistically signiﬁcant subjects made predictions subjects received Subjects saw target value Thornton unavailable arguments unavailable information unavailable side Yemen