European energy and transport scenarios on key drivers: september 2004
Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2004 - Technology & Engineering - 262 pages
This publication sets out analyses of likely energy policy developments and frameworks within the 25 EU Member States (EU-25) to the year 2030, including scenarios for baseline development based on the continuation of current trends and policies, as well as for alternative energy futures based on key drivers related to different framework conditions for energy and transport policies. These include higher world energy prices, higher or lower economic growth, as well as different policy approaches relating to energy efficiency, renewables, nuclear energy, modal split in transport and climate change. The scenario results were derived with the PRIMES model operated by the National Technical University of Athens.
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Baseline assumptions Baseline levels Baseline scenario biofuels biomass C02 emissions carbon intensity change from baseline CO2 emissions reduction cogeneration combined cycle compared to Baseline costs demand side economic growth electricity and steam ener energy consumption energy efficiency energy intensity gains energy requirements EU-25 energy system evolution Extended policy options final energy demand fossil fuels Fuel input fuel mix Full policy options gas prices gas turbine high oil higher impact import dependency increase industry installed capacity Kyoto forever levels in 2030 liquid fuels long run market share Member Mtoe natural gas nuclear energy Nuclear phase nuclear phase-out oil and gas percentage points power generation sector primary energy demand primary energy needs PRIMES projection period Promoting rail rail and improved renewable energy forms renewables share results by group share of renewable significant solid fuels supply side support for renewables Table targets tertiary tion transport activity transport sector