Fighter Drawdown Dynamics: Effects on Aircrew Inventories (Google eBook)

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Rand Corporation, 2009 - BUSINESS & ECONOMICS - 151 pages
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Even though the number of fighter aircraft in the Air Force inventory is decreasing, the demand for experienced fighter pilots is increasing because new nonflying staff positions are thought to require people with fighter skills. The authors use a dynamic mathematical model to show that, under current conditions and management practices, fighter units are unable to "absorb" enough new pilots--that is, provide enough flying hours to give them the experience they need--to meet the increased demand and that attempting to do so can decrease unit readiness. They also show how increasing credit for simulator training, new approaches to developing fighter pilot-like skills (such as unmanned aerial systems), and the integrated use of active, guard, and reserve fighter aircraft for pilot development can help the Air Force meet the increased demand for staff personnel with fighter pilot skills while maintaining the health of its fighter units.
  

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Contents

Introduction
1
Organization of the Monograph
2
How the Crisis in Fighter Aircrew Management Developed
5
Complexities of the Aircrew Training and Development System
7
FourStar Rated Summit Attempts to Address System Problems
8
Resistance to Realistic Production Limits
10
Factors Complicating Problem Recognition
12
Contingency Support Flying
15
Model Results Used in Initial TAMI 21 Discussions
53
Projections of the Consequences of Doing Nothing
54
Options for Fixing Fighter Unit Problems Studied by TAMI 21
61
Recommendations of the TAMI 21 Task Force
65
Other Events and Decisions That Followed TAMI 21
69
The FourStar Conference
70
Decisions That Followed the 2007 FourStar Conference
72
Predicted Consequences of the Decisions
74

FY 2004 Total Pilot Inventory Match
17
The Pilot Bathtub
20
Conclusion
22
Modeling the System
23
The Dynamic Picture of Pilot Absorption
26
An Example of the Capabilities of the Dynamic Model
29
Evolution of the Dynamic Model
33
Model Updates in 2006
35
Incorporating Second Operational Tours
37
Accounting for Early Departures
38
The ForeverUnfinished Model
39
Air Force Policy Decisions 20062008
41
Aircrew Review 2005
42
Model Results Presented to Aircrew Review 2005
44
The Effects of Crediting Simulator Time and Related AFSO21 Policy Decisions in 2006
46
Discovery of a Potential SecondTour Choke Point
48
Operational Units Require SecondTour Pilots for IPs and Flight Leads
49
Effects of Related Cuts in Flying Hours
51
Proposals to Improve Aircrew Management
52
The Removal of Experienced Pilots Has Little Effect
75
UAS Career Field Revisited
76
Conclusions
78
The Potential Role of Total Force Integration Initiatives
81
Air Force Reserve and Air National Guard Manning Issues
82
A Theoretical Upper Bound for Potential AFRC and ANG Contributions
84
Obstacles to Realizing the Theoretical Upper Bound
85
Absorption Capacity Potential in ActiveAssociate Units
86
Resource Issues for ActiveAssociate Units
88
What Needs to Be Done?
90
Revised Directives
92
Alleviating Current Rated Officer Shortfalls
93
Summary
94
Conclusions and Recommendations
95
A Model for Dynamically Tracking Fighter Pilots Through Operational Squadrons
99
The 2005 Aircrew Review
137
Working Group on Transformational Aircrew Management Initiatives for the 21st Century
143
References
149
Copyright

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About the author (2009)

William W. Taylor is Chairperson and Professor of the Department of Fisheries and Wildlife at Michigan State University.

James H. Bigelow (Ph.D., Operations Research (1970), Stanford University) is a senior mathematician at RAND.

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