Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

Front Cover
Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, Amos Tversky
Cambridge University Press, Apr 30, 1982 - Psychology - 555 pages
12 Reviews
The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them.

What people are saying - Write a review

User ratings

5 stars
4 stars
3 stars
2 stars
1 star

Review: Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

User Review  - Usman - Goodreads

Very insightful book. It shows deviations from mathematical thinking and leans towards descriptive research. It is self contained and accessible. Recommended to people who want a strong grasp on decision sciences. Read full review

Review: Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

User Review  - Sam Jaques - Goodreads

Really dry, and I was worried that most of the data is now outdated. Some of it was really interesting, and some might even be useful, but it was a heck of a slog just for those bits. Read full review

Related books

Selected pages


Judgment under uncertainty Heuristics and biases
Belief in the law of small numbers
Subjective probability A judgment of representativeness
On the psychology of prediction
Studies of representativeness
Judgments of and by representativeness
Popular induction Information is not necessarily informative
Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty
Overconfidence in casestudy judgments
A progress report on the training of probability assessors
Calibration of probabilities The state of the art to 1980
For those condemned to study the past Heuristics and biases in hindsight
Evaluation of compound probabilities in sequential choice
Conservatism in human information processing
The bestguess hypothesis in multistage inference
Inferences of personal characteristics on the basis of information retrieved from ones memory

Shortcomings in the attribution process On the origins and maintenance of erroneous social assessments
Evidential impact of base rates
Availability A heuristic for judging frequency and probability
Egocentric biases in availability and attribution
The availability bias in social perception and interaction
The simulation heuristic
Informal covariation assessment Databased versus theorybased judgments
The illusion of control
Test results are what you think they are
Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine Problems and opportunities
Learning from experience and suboptimal rules in decision making
The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making
The vitality of mythical numbers
Intuitive prediction Biases and corrective procedures
Improving inductive inference
Facts versus fears Understanding perceived risk
On the study of statistical intuitions
Variants of uncertainty

Other editions - View all

Common terms and phrases

References to this book

All Book Search results »

References from web pages

Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Daniel Kahneman ...
Perceived Risk, in Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Daniel Kahneman, Paul. Slovic, and Amos Tversky eds., 1982) ...
www.law.harvard.edu/ faculty/ jolls/ pdfs/ Topics%20in%20Behavioral%20Law%20and%20Economics%20Fall%202006,%20Preliminary...

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases Amos Tversky ...
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Amos Tversky; Daniel Kahneman. Science, New Series, Vol. 185, No. 4157. (Sep. 27, 1974), pp. 1124-1131. ...
psiexp.ss.uci.edu/ research/ teaching/ Tversky_Kahneman_1974.pdf

Judgment under Uncertainty - Cambridge University Press
Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman; Part II. Representativeness: 2. Belief in the law of small numbers Amos ...
www.cambridge.org/ catalogue/ catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521284141

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases -- Tversky and ...
Jump to: Page Content, Section Navigation, Site Navigation, Site Search, Account Information, or Site Tools. Note to users. If you're seeing this message, ...
www.sciencemag.org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 185/ 4157/ 1124?maxtoshow=& HITS=10& hits=10& RESULTFORMAT=& fulltext=Judgment+Und...

JSTOR: Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.
Book Reviews 223 Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky (eds.). New York: Cambridge University ...
links.jstor.org/ sici?sici=0162-1459(198403)79%3A385%3C223%3AJUUHAB%3E2.0.CO%3B2-R

Bias and Belief wiki / Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and ...
Notes on Kahneman D., Slovic P., and Tversky, A. (Eds.) (1982) Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. New York: Cambridge University Press ...
biasandbelief.pbwiki.com/ Judgment+Under+Uncertainty:+Heuristics+and+Biases

Kahneman, Slovic and Tversky (1982) Judgment under uncertainty ...
Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Post a Comment. CONTRIBUTORS:. Editor: Kahneman, Daniel (Princeton University). Editor: Slovic, Paul (b. ...
www.getcited.org/ pub/ 102135502

Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman - Judgment under Uncertainty ...
Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman - Judgment under Uncertainty - Heuristics and Biases 1974.pdf torrent download locations ...
www.torrentz.com/ b817aefbbd0f1084fa47ad56bbfcbaa98d1f7e1a

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.
The paper describes three heuristics, or mental operations, that are employed in judgment under uncertainty. The first is an assessment of ...
stinet.dtic.mil/ oai/ oai?verb=getRecord& metadataPrefix=html& identifier=AD0767426

Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman - Judgment under Uncertainty ...
download Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman - Judgment under Uncertainty - Heuristics and Biases 1974 pdf Full Downloads via warezquality - Give it a try! ...
www.fulldls.com/ torrent-ebooks-363523.html

About the author (1982)

Daniel Kahneman received the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his pioneering work with Amos Tversky on decision-making.

Dr. Slovic studies judgment and decision processes with an emphasis on decision making under conditions of risk. His work examines fundamental issues such as the influence of affect on judgments and decisions. He also studies the factors that underlie perceptions of risk and attempts to assess the importance of these perceptions for the management of risk in society. His most recent research examines psychological factors contributing to apathy toward genocide. He no longer does classroom teaching but does advise students in their research. For further information visit Dr. Slovic's website: www.decisionresearch.org

Tversky is Professor of Psychology, Stanford University.

Bibliographic information