The Theory that Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, & Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy (Google eBook)Bayes rule appears to be a straightforward, oneline theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the firstever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of offtheshelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a gamechanger. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA decoding to Homeland Security.Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time. 
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Review: The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
User Review  Malachy Caldwel  GoodreadsWhen I start a book  no matter how dull it is  I feel compelled to finish it. So, with this book, I suffered. I don't want to knock the author here  it is supremely wellresearched and gives an ... Read full review
Review: The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
User Review  John Esterly  GoodreadsI enjoyed this book as a history of the application of Bayesian statistical analysis and theory. More than anything, it served as a 250page must read list for future reading. This book was much less ... Read full review
Contents
Part II Second World War Era  59 
Part III The Glorious Revival  89 
Part IV To Prove Its Worth  137 
Part V Victory  211 
Appendixes  253 
Notes  259 
Glossary  271 
275  
307  
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accident actuaries American antiBayesian applied Bailey Banburismus Bayesian analysis Bayesian methods Bayesian networks Bayesian statistics became Bletchley Park bomb Brillinger Britain British Business School calculations called classiﬁed codes Cornﬁeld Craven Credibility cryptography decision Dennis Lindley developed diﬂﬂcult disease effreys Egon Pearson Enigma experience ﬁeld Fienberg ﬁgure ﬁlters ﬁnally ﬁnd ﬁnding ﬁrst Fisher ﬁve frequentist Gelfand German Gibbs sampling Hbomb Harvard hypothesis Ibid Iklé inference interview Karl Pearson Kolmogorov Laplace Laplace’s later Lindley lung cancer machine Madansky Markov chains mathematicians mathematics military models Monte Carlo Mosteller naval navy Neyman nuclear weapons oﬂﬂcers Palomares paper Pearson physicist prior probability of causes problems published Raiffa RAND Richardson rule sampling Savage Schlaifer scientiﬁc scientists Second World Second World War signiﬁcant Soviet Statistical Science statisticians statistics department submarine theorem theory Thomas Bayes tions Tukey Tukey’s Turing Turing’s Uboat uncertainty University Wallace wrote